Market Overview 14th Oct'24: Bulls Charge Dalal Street

On October 14, 2024, Indian markets saw a robust performance as bulls took charge, leading to significant gains for major indices. After a few range-bound sessions, the Nifty managed to climb above 25,150, showing intraday strength, while the Sensex also ended on a positive note. This rally was driven by strong buying across most sectors, with the exception of metals and media. The optimistic sentiment was underpinned by positive global cues, which helped in maintaining the market momentum throughout the day.

Indices Performance: Nifty and Sensex Climb Higher

The trading session ended with the Sensex gaining 591.69 points, or 0.73%, closing at 81,973.05. Similarly, the Nifty surged by 163.70 points, or 0.66%, to settle at 25,128. This rise marked a successful break from previous consolidation phases, signaling a stronger upward trend. IT, realty, and banking stocks were the top contributors to this bullish movement, driving the Nifty past the 25,150 mark during intraday trading.

Sectoral Analysis: IT, Realty, and Banking Stocks Lead

Throughout the trading session, buying activity was prominent across various sectors. Information Technology, realty, and banking stocks emerged as the top performers, each recording approximately a 1% increase. On the other hand, metal and media sectors were the only ones to end in the red, showing a lack of investor interest. The strong performance in key sectors helped sustain the overall market rally, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Top Gainers and Losers

Key gainers on the Nifty included Wipro, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Life, L&T, and HDFC Bank, all of which showed notable gains. Conversely, some major companies like ONGC, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, and Adani Enterprises ended the session in the red. This mixed performance indicates selective buying, particularly favoring sectors poised for growth.

Midcap and Smallcap Stocks: Mixed Performance

The BSE midcap index recorded a modest gain of 0.3%, while the smallcap index ended almost flat, indicating a relatively subdued performance compared to the large-cap indices. Despite this, over 240 stocks on the BSE reached their 52-week highs, reflecting strong underlying market confidence. Among these were prominent names like Aptus Value, Oberoi Realty, Tech Mahindra, Persistent Systems, and HCL Technologies.

Market Outlook for October 15

According to Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares, the market's positive momentum is likely to continue, especially if Nifty can move convincingly above the 25,200 resistance level. The immediate support for Nifty is seen at the psychological level of 25,000, while resistance lies between 25,160-25,200. Technical patterns, including a bullish Marubozu candlestick on the daily chart, further support this upward trend. However, sustained movement in the lower timeframes will be key to confirming this breakout.

Technical Analysis Insights

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, observed that the Nifty opened with a gap-up and maintained a positive bias throughout the day, closing with gains of around 164 points. He anticipates continued upward movement towards the 25,500 mark, as indicated by a positive crossover in the hourly momentum indicator. This buy signal suggests that the Nifty's recent consolidation phase has concluded, with support shifting higher to 24,920.

Similarly, the Bank Nifty index broke out of a three-day consolidation period, moving towards the 52,500 level. Support for this index has also shifted higher, indicating the potential for further gains.

Conclusion: Positive Momentum Expected to Persist

The Indian stock market showed a strong performance on October 14, 2024, driven by gains in IT, realty, and banking stocks. With positive global cues and supportive technical patterns, the outlook for the next trading session remains optimistic. Analysts expect Nifty to maintain its upward trajectory if it can breach resistance at 25,200, while Bank Nifty also shows potential for further gains. Investors are advised to remain cautious yet optimistic, as market conditions indicate a continuation of this bullish trend in the near term.Bottom of Form

 

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Plutus Wealth Management Acquires 75 Lakh Shares in SpiceJet

On October 1, 2024, Plutus Wealth Management executed a bulk deal to acquire 75 lakh shares in SpiceJet. These shares were purchased at an average price of Rs 66.7 per share. Following this transaction, SpiceJet's stock witnessed a significant surge, closing at Rs 68.13, up by 6.95 percent on the NSE.

Nexpact and AG Dynamic Funds Deal in Tiger Logistics Shares

Simultaneously, Nexpact Limited sold 19.69 lakh shares of Tiger Logistics (India) at an average price of Rs 62.75. AG Dynamic Funds Limited matched this acquisition by purchasing the exact same number of shares at the same price. Despite the transaction, Tiger Logistics' stock saw a slight decrease, closing 0.11 percent lower at Rs 62.99 on the BSE.

Jana Small Finance Bank Sees Bulk Deal Activity

In a separate transaction, Deepi Rupinder Singh Arora bought 3.61 lakh shares in Jana Small Finance Bank for Rs 580.15 per share. On the other side of the trade, Par Solar offloaded the same number of shares at the same average price. The stock of Jana Small Finance Bank showed a minor dip of 0.91 percent, closing at Rs 574.3 on the NSE.

These bulk deals highlight the continued interest of large institutional investors in key sectors such as aviation, logistics, and banking, underscoring the market's dynamic nature amidst fluctuating prices.

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Technical View: Nifty Eyes 26,000 Milestone, Bank Nifty Crosses 54,000 for the First Time

On September 23, 2024, the Nifty 50 maintained its upward trajectory, moving closer to the key psychological barrier of 26,000. With this bullish momentum, the index is expected to breach the 26,000 level in upcoming sessions. However, experts emphasize that sustainability beyond this mark will be crucial for continued gains. On the downside, 25,800 is expected to serve as immediate support, while 25,500 will be a crucial level to watch.

Nifty 50 Performance: The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,873 and remained in positive territory throughout the day. It touched a new intraday high of 25,956 before consolidating slightly and closing at 25,939, gaining 148 points. This marked a new record close for the index, which has been on a winning streak for three straight sessions. On the technical front, the index has formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, bolstered by positive trends in momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Expert Analysis: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, pointed out that the daily charts show a bullish candlestick formation, indicating further upward movement. The index has been forming a "higher highs-higher lows" pattern, which reinforces its positive momentum. However, Chouhan warns that despite the bullish market sentiment, overbought conditions could lead to a period of rangebound activity in the short term. For day traders, the 25,850–25,800 zone will act as strong support, while the immediate resistance levels lie between 26,050 and 26,100. If Nifty fails to hold above 25,800, the uptrend could be at risk, prompting traders to exit long positions.

Options Data: Analysis of monthly options data reveals that the maximum Call open interest is at the 27,000 strike price, suggesting this could be a medium-term target for the Nifty 50. Other key levels include 26,000 and 26,500 strikes. The highest Call writing was observed at the 27,000 strike, followed by the 25,900 and 26,400 strikes, indicating that 26,000 is a critical resistance point. On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, with 25,500 and 25,700 being other significant levels. Put writing was most active at the 25,900 and 25,800 strikes, further confirming that 26,000 is a key resistance level, while support is solid around 25,800.

Bank Nifty: The Bank Nifty index also continued its rally for the eighth consecutive session, crossing the 54,000 mark for the first time. It rose by 313 points to close at 54,106, forming a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, supported by strong momentum indicators. According to Chandan Taparia, Senior Vice President and Analyst of Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the Bank Nifty needs to stay above the 53,750 zone to maintain its upward movement towards 54,500 and 55,000 levels. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 53,750, with additional support at 53,500.

Volatility and India VIX: Volatility saw a sharp increase, though it remained at relatively low levels below the 14 mark. The India VIX, often referred to as the "fear gauge," rose by 7.78% to 13.79 from 12.79 in the previous session. If the VIX climbs above the 15 mark and sustains, it could signal increased caution for bulls, as higher volatility could lead to more unpredictable market movements.

Outlook: While the overall market sentiment remains bullish, experts are keeping a close eye on key levels. Nifty is expected to test the 26,000 resistance soon, but sustainability beyond this point will be crucial. A correction could be on the cards if the index fails to hold above 25,800. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty's strength signals continued upward momentum for banking stocks, with the index aiming for 54,500–55,000 levels in the near term.

In conclusion, while the market is in a bullish phase, short-term caution is advised as overbought conditions and rising volatility may lead to consolidation or minor corrections. Traders are encouraged to adopt a trailing stop-loss strategy to safeguard their gains, particularly if Nifty struggles to maintain its momentum beyond the 26,000 level.

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Retail Investors Propel 12x Surge in Index Fund Folios: Zerodha Study

Retail investors have played a crucial role in the explosive growth of index funds, with a study by Zerodha Fund House revealing a 12-fold increase in the number of retail folios in these funds over the past three years. As per the study, retail folios in index funds surged from 4.95 lakh in March 2020 to a staggering 59.37 lakh by December 2023. This growth underscores a rising interest among individual investors in passive investing, which offers a diversified portfolio with relatively lower management costs.

 

In tandem with the increase in folios, the overall number of index mutual funds in the market has also seen remarkable growth. From just 44 in March 2020, the number of available index mutual funds ballooned to around 207 by March 2024. This translates to a significant growth of 370 percent, showcasing the expanding options for investors seeking a low-cost alternative to actively managed funds.

 

One of the key highlights of the study was the substantial increase in the assets under management (AUM) of index funds, both in equity and debt categories. The total AUM of index funds grew by approximately 25 times, reaching ₹2.13 lakh crore by March 2024, up from its March 2020 levels. Notably, debt index funds emerged as a dominant force within this space, contributing 51.5 percent of the total AUM. Until March 2021, debt index funds had negligible assets, but they have now crossed the ₹1.1 lakh crore mark as of March 2024, reflecting a growing preference among investors for fixed-income index funds.

 

The report further indicated that as of March 31, 2024, there were 120 equity index funds and 87 debt index funds available to investors. The dominance of the Nifty 50 index is particularly significant, with 70.7 percent of the total AUM of index funds, or ₹52,000 crore, allocated to Nifty 50 funds. This reflects a clear preference for large-cap stocks among investors seeking stability and lower volatility. The Nifty Next 50 index, which holds 14.6 percent of total AUM at ₹10,000 crore, also attracted investors, offering exposure to mid-cap and small-cap stocks for those with a more balanced risk appetite.

 

The Zerodha report also pointed out that the total assets in the index fund category reached a record high of ₹2.43 lakh crore by June 2024. Over the past three years, index funds have experienced the highest AUM growth across all mutual fund categories, recording a phenomenal 900 percent increase. This surge in assets reflects the growing popularity of index funds among both retail and institutional investors, driven by factors such as transparency, lower costs, and the potential for consistent returns.

 

With retail investors continuing to embrace index funds, the category is poised for further growth. As the study concludes, the shift towards passive investing is gaining traction, offering a promising avenue for investors looking to capitalize on broad market performance without the higher fees associated with active management.

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Markets Await Powell's Decision: Will He Follow Greenspan's Playbook to Avoid Recession?

With bonds and stocks rallying ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve meeting, traders are drawing parallels to the 1995 era when Alan Greenspan successfully navigated a soft landing for the U.S. economy. The focus now is on whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will opt for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut, and how it will impact the economy.

Historical data shows that during past Fed easing cycles, including the six analyzed since 1989, the S&P 500 Index, Treasuries, and gold typically rise when the Fed begins to lower rates. Traders are looking back at 1995 for guidance, a year when the Fed managed to reduce rates without triggering an economic downturn.

Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, believes the U.S. economy is on track to dodge a recession with the Fed's anticipated policy shift. "Once the Fed starts cutting rates, there will be a positive psychological effect that will support the market," she said.

The S&P 500 Index has historically gained an average of 13% in the six months following the first rate cut, except during the recessionary years of 2001 and 2007. Additionally, short-term Treasuries have usually outperformed long-term notes during these cycles, leading to a steeper yield curve. Gold has also delivered returns in four of the past six easing cycles, while the performance of the dollar and oil has been mixed.

As the Fed prepares to implement rate cuts, uncertainty looms with the upcoming presidential election. Candidates have starkly different economic policies, which could significantly affect global markets based on election outcomes and Congressional votes.

Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, has downgraded his rating of U.S. equities to neutral from overweight due to election risks. "The most likely scenario is a soft landing, but elections could introduce unique challenges," he noted.

In the 1995 easing cycle, Greenspan and the Fed managed to lower rates from 6% to 5.25% within six months, cooling the economy without causing a downturn. This time, with the Fed's target range at 5.25% to 5.5% for 14 months, bond traders are pricing in over 2 percentage points of easing over the next year. The S&P 500 is nearing an all-time high, and credit spreads are at historical lows.

Investor optimism for a soft landing is supported by strong corporate and household balance sheets, with record-high corporate profits and household wealth. "Inflation is no longer the primary concern; it's high interest rates," said Yung-Yu Ma, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Wealth Management. "By cutting rates now, the Fed may address this issue and prevent a downturn."

Bloomberg strategists suggest that Treasury bonds typically rally at the onset of a Fed easing cycle, particularly when it coincides with a weakening economy. However, in a soft landing scenario, bond performance may lag behind stocks.

Recent data shows a rotation into utilities and real estate sectors, which historically benefit from rate cuts if economic growth remains robust.

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